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Monthly Update

Alphabet Plunged on a Day Most Stocks Rose

Investors punished Big Tech's AI spending in October, and my strategy slipped 2.31% for the month. It's still up 24.34% this year, compared with 10.28% for the 80/20 benchmark. One position changes for November.

Tyler Marshall

• 7 min read
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Dark storm clouds roll over a golden wheat field toward a cluster of silver grain silos, with a gravel road and green trees on the right.
A storm rolls toward a farm's grain silos. October's rough weather hit tech, while broad commodities, my only holding to gain this month, held up. Photo by Barbara Rindisbacher on Unsplash

My November portfolio allocations are in the paid second half of this update. October was my strategy's worst month since March, with emerging markets and the Nasdaq-100 doing most of the damage. Broad commodities was the lone bright spot. Below is a quick look at what happened, plus a note on Thursday night's tech selloff.

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A quick note before the numbers. After Thursday's close, Amazon and Intel fell sharply on their earnings, and Nasdaq-100 futures slid about 2% overnight. That came on top of the worst day ever for Alphabet, Google's parent company, which lost about $500 billion in market value. Underneath those headlines, though, Thursday wasn't a market-wide rout—more stocks rose than fell, nearly two to one on the New York Stock Exchange. I'm watching closely, but I'm not overly concerned. Drops like this have happened many times before, and they're uncomfortable every time. If the headlines have you feeling anxious, you're not alone. Anxiety is also the worst headspace for making decisions, which is exactly why I built my strategy on a calm day—so a night like this doesn't get to make the call.

📌 This newsletter explains how I invest my own money, using a simple portfolio of four ETFs. The aim is to match or exceed the returns of a traditional balanced portfolio, but with shallower drawdowns. I share what I hold and why, so you can watch it play out.

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MTD: Asymmetric Edge −2.31% vs. 80/20 (AOA) +0.52%, S&P 500 +0.88%
YTD: Asymmetric Edge +24.34% vs. 80/20 (AOA) +10.28%, S&P 500 +13.70%
YTD outperformance: +14.1% vs. 80/20, +10.6% vs. S&P 500

Quick Take

October was a down month for my strategy, even as the S&P 500 and the 80/20 benchmark gained. My portfolio fell 2.31% through October 29th. The 80/20 stock-and-bond benchmark gained 0.52%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.88%. My strategy holds only four funds, so when three of them decline in the same month, the whole portfolio feels it.

Year-to-date, $10,000 invested in the strategy on January 1st would be worth about $12,434 as of October 29th. The same $10,000 in the 80/20 benchmark would be worth about $11,028.

Where October's Loss Came From

Each holding's contribution to the strategy's October return through October 29, 2026. Broad commodities added 0.52% to the return on a 1.53% gain. The Nasdaq-100 subtracted 1.02% on a 3.30% loss, emerging markets subtracted 1.34% on a 6.24% loss, and Bitcoin subtracted 0.47% on a 3.44% loss, for a total of negative 2.31%.
Each holding’s contribution to my return, 9/30/2026 through 10/29/2026, from actual gains in my account. Fund returns from Yahoo Finance (adjusted close). Before taxes and fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Broad commodities was the only holding to gain, adding 0.52% to the portfolio's return. Emerging markets was the largest drag, costing the portfolio 1.34%, with the Nasdaq-100 close behind at 1.02% and Bitcoin costing another 0.47%.

Year-to-Date Growth of $10,000

Growth of $10,000 invested January 1, 2026, through October 29, 2026. Asymmetric Edge ends at $12,434, up 24.3%, above the S&P 500 at $11,370, up 13.7%, the 80/20 benchmark at $11,028, up 10.3%, and the 60/40 benchmark at $10,761, up 7.6%. The strategy line dips in October but stays well above all three benchmarks.
Growth of $10,000, 12/31/2025 through 10/29/2026. Asymmetric Edge uses my account’s time-weighted returns. Benchmarks are 80/20 (AOA), 60/40 (AOR), and S&P 500 (SPY), from Yahoo Finance adjusted closes with dividends reinvested. Before taxes and fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Even after October, the strategy is still more than 10% ahead of the S&P 500 for the year (24.34% vs. 13.70%).

Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Year-to-date total returns by asset class through October 29, 2026, ranked highest to lowest: commodities 44.24%, emerging markets 28.58%, Japan 24.89%, Nasdaq-100 16.84%, Russell 2000 16.16%, S&P 500 13.70%, U.S. dollar 3.57%, long-term Treasuries negative 3.24%, gold negative 7.00%, and Bitcoin negative 7.94%.
Total returns, 12/31/2025 through 10/29/2026, from Yahoo Finance adjusted closes. Tickers, top to bottom: HGER, EMXC, DXJ, QQQ, IWM, SPY, DX-Y.NYB, TLT, GLD, IBIT. EMXC excludes China, and DXJ hedges out the yen. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Commodities still lead the year by a wide margin. Emerging markets gave back a big chunk of its gain in October, and Bitcoin is now the weakest asset on the chart.

Brief Market Commentary

Investors punished AI spending. Alphabet fell 12.64% on Thursday after search growth disappointed and the company spent more cash than it brought in. That evening, Amazon and Intel tanked in after-hours trading on their own earnings reports. All three are in the Nasdaq-100, which made up about 31% of my portfolio in October and was already down 3.30% for the month before Thursday night's selloff.

Small caps rose while tech fell. The Russell 2000, an index of about 2,000 smaller U.S. companies, gained 2.20% in October as the Nasdaq-100 dropped. Thursday showed the same split, with the Russell 2000 up about 1% and the Nasdaq-100 down about 1.4%.

Oil climbed, gold slid, and commodities held up. Brent crude settled at $116.72 on October 23rd, its highest since April, after Yemen's Houthi rebels stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia. Gold fell below $4,000 the same week. Broad commodities (HGER) still gained 1.53% for the month—oil and fuel make up about 44% of the index it tracks, and gold only about 18%.

What I'm Watching

I'm watching whether the selloff in big tech spreads. So far it's been narrow, with most stocks rising on Thursday even as a few giants fell hard. Oil is also on my radar. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average about $105 a barrel through the end of the year.

Will Thursday's tech selloff turn into something bigger? I don't know. If it does, it'll show up in my strategy's momentum readings, and the portfolio allocations will shift accordingly.

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Disclaimer: This newsletter documents my personal investing journey and is for informational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here constitutes individualized advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. I hold positions in the assets mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Below for paid members:

  • The four ETFs I'm holding for November, with exact weights
  • The one holding that exits, and what takes its place
  • How my portfolio allocations shifted from the start of October