Sign in Subscribe
Monthly Update

Bitcoin Led, Bonds Fell, and the Fed Finally Hiked

Bitcoin led the ETFs I track in September. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high. My strategy is up 26.98% year-to-date, compared with 10.14% for the 80/20 benchmark. One position changes for October.

Tyler Marshall

• 7 min read
Share
Aerial view of a misty autumn forest in warm morning light, with one bright red tree standing out among green, gold, and orange trees.
Photo by Ales Krivec on Unsplash+

My October portfolio allocations are in the paid second half of this update. The strategy is up 26.98% for the year, against 10.14% for the 80/20 benchmark, and one major position changes for October. This issue is a quick look at that change, plus a few notes on what moved markets in September.

📌 This newsletter explains how I invest my own money, using a simple portfolio of four ETFs. The aim is to match a traditional balanced portfolio with shallower drawdowns. I share what I hold and why, so you can watch it play out.

Learn more

September MTD: Asymmetric Edge +0.19% vs. 80/20 (AOA) −1.23%, S&P 500 −0.12%
YTD: Asymmetric Edge +26.98% vs. 80/20 (AOA) +10.14%, S&P 500 +12.94%
YTD outperformance: +16.8 pp vs. 80/20, +14.0 pp vs. S&P 500

Quick Take

The strategy held up well in what was a tough month for many assets, especially bonds. My portfolio returned 0.19% through September 29, while the 80/20 benchmark fell 1.23% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.12%. Bitcoin and emerging markets did the lifting, while Japan and active commodities gave a little back.

Year-to-date, $10,000 invested in the strategy on January 1 would be worth approximately $12,698 as of September 29. The same $10,000 in the 80/20 benchmark would be worth approximately $11,014.

Year-to-Date Growth of $10,000

Growth of $10,000 invested January 1, 2026, through September 29, 2026. Asymmetric Edge ends at $12,698, up 27.0%, above the S&P 500 at $11,294, up 12.9%, the 80/20 benchmark at $11,014, up 10.1%, and the 60/40 benchmark at $10,704, up 7.0%. The strategy line pulls ahead in January and stays above all three benchmarks for the rest of the year.
Growth of $10,000 invested at the start of the year (total return, dividends reinvested). Asymmetric Edge data through 09/29/2026. S&P 500 (SPY), 60/40 (AOR), and 80/20 (AOA) total return data sourced from Yahoo Finance (adjusted close). All performance figures are shown before taxes, advisory fees, and transaction costs, which would reduce returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Year-to-date total returns by asset class through September 29, 2026, ranked highest to lowest: commodities 41.02%, emerging markets 38.89%, Japan 24.51%, Nasdaq-100 20.53%, Russell 2000 14.11%, S&P 500 12.94%, U.S. dollar 3.14%, gold negative 3.39%, Bitcoin negative 4.67%, and long-term Treasuries negative 7.49%.
YTD total returns from 12/31/2025 through 09/29/2026, using adjusted close prices (dividends reinvested) from Yahoo Finance. Tickers: HGER (Commodities), EMXC (Emerging Mkts), DXJ (Japan), QQQ (Nasdaq-100), IWM (Russell 2000), SPY (S&P 500), DX-Y.NYB (U.S. Dollar Index), GLD (Gold), IBIT (Bitcoin), TLT (LT Treasuries). EMXC excludes China, and DXJ hedges out the yen. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Commodities have led this year, with emerging markets close behind. Gold is now below where it started 2026, and long-term Treasuries have the weakest return on the chart.

Brief Market Commentary

The Fed hiked as long-term rates climbed. Policymakers voted 12-0 on September 16 for the first rate hike since 2023, to 3.75% to 4.00%. By September 28 the 10-year Treasury yield had passed 5.2%, its highest in about 19 years. That increases credit card rates, which follow the Fed, and mortgage rates, which track the 10-year yield.

Bonds offered no cushion. Long-term Treasuries (TLT), a fund of U.S. government bonds maturing 20+ years out, fell 4.84% in September, since bond prices drop when yields rise. The 80/20 benchmark (80% stocks, 20% bonds) lost 1.23% and the 60/40 lost 1.45%, while the S&P 500 dipped only 0.12%.

Bitcoin had a strong first month back. Bitcoin (IBIT) returned 5.95% in September, the best of the ETFs I track (remember how I was hesitant to buy Bitcoin last month?). Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.39 billion in the week ending September 25, the most since October 2025. Bitcoin remains about a third below its October 2025 peak.

Energy pushed inflation higher. Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier in August, with energy up 16.3% and gasoline up 27.4%. Employers added 162,000 jobs against roughly 53,000 expected, and unemployment was 4.1%. That helps explain the hike. The Fed raises rates to slow spending and hiring, which eases pressure on prices (at least that's the idea).

What I'm Watching

The Fed meets again October 27 and 28. As of September 28, futures markets priced roughly a 70% chance of a second hike. Oil is the other swing factor. Brent crude topped $100 in September and was near $106 on September 28, after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

If higher rates or oil prices change the rankings, the strategy will adapt per usual and shift into the asset classes with the strongest momentum.

❗
Disclaimer: This newsletter documents my personal investing journey and is for informational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, and nothing here constitutes individualized advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. I hold positions in the assets mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Below for paid members:

  • The four ETFs I'm holding for October, with exact weights
  • The one major holding that exits, and what takes its place
  • How holdings shifted from the start of September

Portfolio Allocations for October

Portfolio allocations for October: Nasdaq-100 31.13%, emerging markets 21.49%, active commodities 33.81%, and Bitcoin 13.58%.

How Allocations Shifted from Last Month

How October allocations shifted from September: the Nasdaq-100 enters at 31.13%, Japan exits from 32.30% to zero, active commodities rises from 32.12% to 33.81%, Bitcoin eases from 14.10% to 13.58%, and emerging markets stay at 21.49%.

Read the table from left to right. It starts with each position's weight at the August 31 rebalance, then shows where each one drifted by September 29 from price changes alone. The new target is the weight my model has set for October, and trim/add percent is the trade needed to adjust to the new target weights.

  • 🆕 Nasdaq-100 returns at 31.13% after one month out. It is the only U.S. stock fund in the lineup
  • 📤 Japan exits after two months, dropping to fifth place in my rankings
  • ⚖️ Active commodities increased to 33.81% (+1.69%) and is now the largest position. October is its ninth straight month in the portfolio
  • ⚖️ Bitcoin trimmed to 13.58% (−0.52%) after gaining 5.95% in September
  • ↔️ Emerging markets unchanged at 21.49%

The Nasdaq-100 returns to the portfolio after regaining momentum. It gained 3.06% in September while Japan slipped 0.73%. For Japan, the strategy uses a yen-hedged fund (DXJ), so its return mostly reflects Japanese stocks rather than currency swings. The Nasdaq's momentum score, a combination of several monthly lookback periods, now beats Japan's by about three percentage points, enough to claim the fourth and final spot.

The strategy sets weights using risk parity. It measures risk by volatility, meaning how much a fund's price fluctuates over time, and gives the calmer funds larger weights so each of the four adds roughly the same risk to the portfolio. Active commodities and the Nasdaq-100 have been the steadiest of the four over the past year, so they earn the largest weightings. Bitcoin again takes the smallest slice because its price has been more than twice as volatile as either of those two funds.

Up Next

The full October newsletter is coming in about two weeks with detailed performance data, risk metrics, and this month's deep dive. Thanks for reading.

Disclaimer & Disclosure

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or buy any securities. The content is published as a journal of the author's personal investment activities and is intended for a general audience.

No Investment Advice: The author is not a financial advisor. You should not treat any opinion expressed herein as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.

Risk Warning: Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.

Data & Accuracy: Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.

Positions: The author currently holds positions in the securities mentioned in this newsletter. The author may buy or sell these securities at any time without notice.

Copyright: This content is provided solely for the personal use of the subscriber. Any unauthorized copying, forwarding, or distribution of this material is prohibited without prior written consent.