Quiet Portfolio, Loud Market
The Asymmetric Edge strategy gained 5.74% in May and is up 24.0% year-to-date, more than double the S&P 500. June holds the same four ETFs as May, a quiet rebalance after April's big rotation, with a look at the AI chip melt-up and a hot inflation print.
My June portfolio allocations are below. The same four ETFs that carried the portfolio through May carry it into June. The Asymmetric Edge strategy is up 24.0% year-to-date, more than double the S&P 500's 11.0%. This issue is a quick look at how I am positioned for next month, plus a few notes on what moved the markets.
📌 This newsletter explains how I invest my own money, using a simple portfolio of four ETFs. I share what I hold and why, so readers can see one real world approach in action.
May MTD: Asymmetric Edge +5.74% vs. S&P 500 +5.0%
YTD through 5/28: Asymmetric Edge +24.0% vs. S&P 500 +11.0%
YTD outperformance margin: +13.0 percentage points
Portfolio Allocations for June
How Allocations Shifted from Last Month
In the table above, the month start column is each position's weight at the May rebalance. The drift column is where each one landed by month-end from price movement alone. The new target is my model's recommended weight for June. The trim/add column is the actual trade, where a positive number means I added and a negative means I trimmed.
No ETF entered or exited this month. June holds the same four as May. This was a rebalance, not a rotation.
Emerging markets ex-China drifted up to 23.91% on strong price gains and was trimmed back to 21.03%, the largest single adjustment. Active commodities drifted the other way, down to 24.36%, and was topped back up to 26.77%. The Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 needed only small adjustments.
After April's big rotation, when U.S. stocks came back in and gold and Japan dropped out, a quiet month like this is what the strategy looks like when momentum holds steady.
Quick Take
Stocks climbed, and this month the strategy climbed alongside them. The portfolio gained 5.74% in May, edging out the S&P 500, which rose roughly 5.0%. That is a different result from April, when the strategy held no U.S. stocks and trailed a record-setting market. With about 52% of the portfolio now in the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000, it took part in the rally instead of watching from the sidelines.
Zoom out and the year-to-date gap is the real story. A hypothetical $10,000 invested at the start of the year would now be worth about $12,405 in the strategy versus $11,096 in the S&P 500. The chart below shows the full spread against the balanced benchmarks.
Charting the Growth of $10,000
The strategy built its lead early in the year, gave a little back during the late-March selloff, and has widened the gap again through May as the held positions have powered ahead.
Brief Market Commentary
The AI chip rally went into overdrive. The semiconductor index is up roughly 65% this year, and Micron crossed a $1 trillion market cap, up about 214% year-to-date, with its memory chips sold out for 2026. The Nasdaq-100 rode the wave to fresh records.
Emerging markets stayed in front. The strategy's emerging markets ex-China position remains its top-ranked momentum asset and one of the year's standouts, helped by AI-driven demand in Taiwan and Korea and by investors diversifying away from U.S. assets. A firmer dollar or a stalling AI trade are the main risks to the run.
Inflation ran hot again. April CPI hit 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, driven by energy up 17.9% and gasoline up 28.4% year over year. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, was expected near a two-year high around 3.3%. Readings like these keep a near-term rate cut off the table.
What I'm Watching
The Iran situation is still the biggest swing factor. Another oil spike could push inflation higher and, if it persists, flip momentum back toward commodities or gold. The inflation path and the new Warsh-led Fed are the second variable, where a hawkish surprise or a rate hike would likely hit small caps and tech the hardest, two of the portfolio's largest positions. And the AI trade itself is worth watching after such a fast run. If any of these flips the momentum picture, the strategy will rotate. That is the whole point of following the data instead of the headlines.
Up Next
The full June newsletter is coming in the next week or two with detailed performance data, risk metrics, and this month's deep dive. Thanks for reading.
Disclaimer & Disclosure
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to sell or buy any securities. The content is published as a journal of the author's personal investment activities and is intended for a general audience.
No Investment Advice: The author is not a financial advisor. You should not treat any opinion expressed herein as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion.
Risk Warning: Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.
Data & Accuracy: Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions.
Positions: The author currently holds positions in the securities mentioned in this newsletter. The author may buy or sell these securities at any time without notice.
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