Deep Dive - Asymmetric Edge

Asymmetric Edge

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Deep Dive

A collection of 5 posts

Waves breaking along a beach at golden hour, with backlit spray under a warm orange sky.

If the AI Bubble Bursts, This Is How My Strategy Would Adapt

October's AI selloff hit two of my four positions, though the strategy is still up 25.9% this year against 10.2% for an 80/20 portfolio. Inside: how much of my portfolio rides on AI, and how my strategy would adapt if the bubble bursts.

No Bonds, No U.S. Stocks, and a Likely Rate Hike Tomorrow

No Bonds, No U.S. Stocks, and a Likely Rate Hike Tomorrow

The Asymmetric Edge strategy is up 25.9% year-to-date against 10.2% for an 80/20 portfolio, and it enters Fed week holding no bonds and no U.S. stocks. Inside: what oil above $100 and a hot producer-price print mean for my four positions, plus the four environments that decide which assets lead.

The Month My Portfolio Almost Went to Cash

The Month My Portfolio Almost Went to Cash

At the end of July, cash nearly broke into the top four holdings on momentum. That would have moved 94% of the portfolio to the sidelines. Instead, the strategy stayed invested and gained 5.50%. This issue is about what almost happened.

Doing Nothing Was the Hard Part

Doing Nothing Was the Hard Part

The strategy is up 23.0% year-to-date, more than double the 80/20 benchmark's 9.5%. Inside: the quiet handoff of market leadership to small caps and emerging markets, and why three months of doing nothing was the hardest part.

What Six Selloffs Say About a Bad Friday

What Six Selloffs Say About a Bad Friday

The S&P 500 had its worst day since October on Friday, and the strategy fell even harder. It is still up 18.8% year to date, more than double an 80/20 portfolio. Inside: what six past selloffs say about riding the first leg down.